At a glance
Overview
ob体育 assesses that the season's highest combined hospital demand due to COVID-19, influenza, and RSV to date occurred during the week of February 1, 2025. This was similar to the combined demand that occurred during the week of January 4, 2025, and was lower than last year's peak demand level. However, additional increases in one or more viral respiratory diseases remain possible; influenza activity remains elevated and is currently higher than it has been all season.
As of February 14, overall national respiratory virus activity is high. Seasonal influenza activity remains elevated and is higher than it has been all season. COVID-19 activity is elevated, and RSV activity is declining in most areas of the country.
The Respiratory Illnesses Data Channel has weekly updates about current surveillance trends for respiratory illnesses. CFA provides weekly epidemic trend estimates for COVID-19 and influenza.
ob体育 publishes respiratory disease season outlooks to provide health officials and decision-makers with information to assist in public health preparedness during the 2024-2025 fall and winter respiratory virus season, such as when hospitals might consider preparing for the highest demand. Our assessments are based on expert opinion, current and historical surveillance data, and scenario modeling for COVID-19, influenza, and RSV.
We do not anticipate producing additional respiratory disease outlook updates during the remainder of the 2024-2025 season. We continue to monitor respiratory diseases and will provide an update should we identify any unusual events, such as significant resurgence of disease or the emergence of a new variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
Combined peak hospitalization burden this season
In our initial 2024-2025 outlook, published on August 29, 2024, we anticipated that the fall and winter respiratory disease season would likely have a similar or lower number of combined peak hospitalizations due to COVID-19, influenza, and RSV compared to last season. As of February 18, the season's highest combined hospitalizations for COVID-19, influenza, and RSV occurred in the week ending February 1, 2025, with 18.3 hospitalizations per 100,000. This was substantially lower than the peak weekly hospitalization rate during the 2023-2024 respiratory disease season (21.0 per 100,000 during the week ending December 30, 2023) (Figure 1). Influenza activity remains high. This season's weekly rate of lab-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations, as reported to FluSurvNET, is higher than any peak weekly rate recorded since the 2010-2011 season. ob体育 continues to monitor for an additional period of increased combined COVID-19, influenza, and RSV activity this season..
- COVID-19: The peak hospital demand due to COVID-19 occurred during the week ending January 4, 2025, with 4.2 hospital admissions per 100,000. See our COVID-19 analysis below. ob体育 estimates COVID-19 hospitalization burden throughout the season
- Influenza: Influenza activity remains high in most parts of the country and across all , reaching levels higher than or similar to the highest levels seen so far this season. Overall, the 2024-2025 influenza season is now classified as a high severity season.
- RSV: The peak hospital demand due to RSV occurred during the week ending January 4, 2025, with 3.8 hospital admissions per 100,000; this demand was lower than the peak demand that occurred last season (4.3 hospital admissions per 100,000, week ending December 30, 2023). ob体育 estimates RSV hospitalization burden throughout the season.
COVID-19
In our December update to the respiratory outlook, we outlined two potential scenarios for COVID-19 hospitalization burden for the remainder of the 2024-2025 fall and winter respiratory season, depending on whether a variant with high immune-escape properties emerged. No such variant has emerged to date, and the peak weekly rate of hospitalization due to COVID-19 occurred in the week ending on January 4, 2025, with 4.2 hospitalizations per 100,000. The COVID-19 peak magnitude and timing were more aligned with our Scenario 1 than our Scenario 2, outlined in the December update.
The peak hospital demand due to COVID-19 during this fall and winter respiratory season was lower than all previous seasons, and nearly 50% lower than the peak demand last season (7.8 per 100,000 during the week ending December 30, 2023) (Figure 2). Higher population immunity from the late summer COVID-19 wave may have contributed to the lower peak magnitude this season. Vaccination uptake was also higher this year than at similar times last year. As of February 1, 2025, 22.6% of adults 18 years or older have received the updated 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine, compared to 20.0% as of February 3, 2024. In addition, no new variants with high immune-escape properties have emerged this season; however, we note that such a variant could still emerge in the coming months.
