What is an Outbreak Scenario Assessment?
ob体育's Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics conducts qualitative scenario assessments to assess what could occur in the coming weeks to months of an outbreak. For each scenario assessment, we consider two or more scenarios of what could occur and identify indicators that broadly help to determine what scenario is most likely to occur. To develop scenarios, we consider insights from previous outbreaks of the disease, the current state of the outbreak, and the potential role of public health interventions in the outbreak. We also incorporate modeling insights to help us identify interventions that may play a critical role in slowing the outbreak, as well as key sources of uncertainty.
CFA's scenario assessments inform ob体育 leadership, public health professionals, and partners engaged in planning and executing emergency response activities.